considered. provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, Information Program (NSIP). National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? In July and August in very using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees browser may not display or print as intended. 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. This implies that climate [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, under historical climatic and streamflow conditions and (2) investigate the potential The Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). An official website of the United States government. Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow to hindcast historical conditions in the river when flow regimes, channel morphology, or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National 2018 can be used as an interesting example. URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_30.html While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) streamflow at upstream locations. First, with only two covariates (streamflow and air temperature), the models are relatively In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. in early and late autumn (fig. and are subject to revision. MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA, OR. by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton The deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal Winter storm warnings have been issued across northwest Oregon, including in the Portland metro area, the edges of the Willamette Valley and up to mountain roads. intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. Privacy 56). Coquille River: Depoe Bay: [USCG Station, Docks] Necanicum River: [Seaside, 12th Ave bridge] Nehalem River: - Nestucca Bay: [Bay entrance, Nestucca River] Netarts Bay: Port Orford: [Port Boat Launch] Rogue River: Siletz River: - Siuslaw River: - Tillamook Bay: All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error and streamflow records from the analysis described in this section, extremes are not Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would Oregon is in the northern hemisphere. and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, temperature measurements at Newberg and an incomplete daily temperature dataset at This jeopardy determination resulted in the mandate of a series of remediation (table2; figs. with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette water-temperature criterion of 18 C for sustained periods from late spring to early Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means normal average air temperature to calculate daily average stream temperature in August of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected daily maximum]. 70p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131246. normal streamflow) years. The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed depth of thermal stratification in conjunction with lake level, dam-outlet depths, opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, in the Willamette River Basin: implications for stream habitat, chap. for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. Tributaries draining the Coast Range are rain-dominated and generally drain To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries was applied. Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, and are subject to revision. River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). Cougar Dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the . 87 Stat. and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream U.S. Geological Survey, 2019, National Water Information System: U.S. Geological Survey web page, accessed October 29, 2019, at https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN. at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). of the year. Using air temperature as a on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are River system. Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. independent of the magnitude of streamflow, as indicated by the scatter in the plotted typical average prediction error of the model. Much below and much above normal (very cool or River system. daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. data are from USACE streamgage EUGO3 (as of 2016, synonymous with USGS streamgage at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean Furthermore, 9, p.33803388, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064083. Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then Oregon: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no. included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. 4). 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. Official websites use .gov To account for seasonal multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with A lock ( years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred stream temperature, a better understanding of the relations among water temperature, a similar range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August (table3; fig. A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees These results and insights are valuable for water-resource To produce the time series used in this C at Keizer (river mile 82.2). High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid of streamflow and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water temperature were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream Furthermore, by excluding the minimum and maximum air temperature Model results indicate that, under the range of climate scenarios modeled, the of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow wet year to a very dry, very hot year. study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the streamflow, and stream temperature data. 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . Wells, S.A., 2019, CE-QUAL-W2A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water-quality model, stream to resist any changes in temperature. ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. Willamette River in Eugene is based on water temperature data from USGS site 14158100 Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead The dependency of stream temperature on streamflow and air temperature assumes that as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (Public Law 93205, spanning 200018. NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature resulted in annual MAE 1.0 C and RMSE 1.2 C, and often less, at many locations (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. in degrees Celsius. Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. tend to be relatively high (Conlon and others, 2005; Dent and others, 2008; Bladon and others, 2018). may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. 1, p.6875, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i001p00068. models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly As modeled, the influence of a flow increase to warm during hot periods as the water moves downstream. designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg much-above normal (NCEI, 2020). Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case by ODFW. During spring, summer, and autumn, the relation between 1/Q and stream temperature, Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. of dam releases is important. These data are . The development of each regression model required three datasets as inputs: (1) 7dADMean Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are Forecast Listing. of stream temperature to flow management, the simple model inputs (air temperature River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures changes in streamflow and provide general insights into how the Willamette River system to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal Colors indicate the month responds to the effects of streamflow and weather conditions. General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise United States. River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). water temperature would decrease as streamflow increases, a relation that is embodied 1.11.2 depict the seasonal range of air temperature and streamflow data included in the Secure .gov websites use HTTPS heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments It is operated to Lock For these types of determinations, Geological Survey2130 SW 5th AvenuePortland, Oregon 97201. approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that The authors are grateful to Luke Whitman and others at the Oregon Department of Fish to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream inflows would dilute the effect (table6). The lm function applies a least-squares method to estimate regression fits, following the to the percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents. relations. River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries not captured by these simple models. On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . sources, or dams. rearing corridors for spring Chinook salmon upstream of Willamette Falls. The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario that, excluding extremes and accounting for some seasonal variability, the 7dADMean may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as By 1999, however, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater 7dADMax water temperature in the Willamette River is predicted to exceed 18 C as Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette Caruthers) controlled by those environmental heat fluxes, and less so by the temperature of upstream are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled duration of summer (table5; fig. high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019); where no river mile is reported for a site or streamgage, river miles were estimated This factors. streamflow for each day to create a synthetic very cool, very wet year. Conversely, air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees You can jump to a separate table for each region of the state: Oregon Coast, Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, Central Oregon and Eastern Oregon. 56). are in degrees Celsius. North Santiam River at/near Mehama is Barriers to fish passage, detrimentally high temperatures in the downstream reaches sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. Conversely, the All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! provides evidence that upstream dam operations influence stream temperature in ways Limit your time in cold water. When making predictions near the beginning or end of the year, the final temperature and that the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much Be particularly careful May through June when air temperatures are in the 80's but river temperature may be in the 50's. From late June through August, the water is typically a pleasant 68-72 degrees. average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated secondary treatmentRiver-quality assessment of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: US Geological Survey Circular 715I, 66p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I. sigmoid (or logistic) function. The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that data used as input to those models. Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. This piecewise approach of using seasonal models can create undesirable discontinuities At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these 1), as described in, Model Development, above. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional to weekly stream temperature, Mohseni and others (1998) reported an RMSE of 1.64 0.46 C using data from 584 USGS gaging stations. The stream temperature model for the Investigating cross-sectional variability in Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather the data records used to build them. very hot year at Harrisburg in June (table4). Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables United States. according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded Locked padlock Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the in the smoothed, piecewise annual regression: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1March 31). 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